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2018年巴基斯坦大选正义运动党胜选原因分析——基于政治动员机制的视角

The Reasons for the Victory of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in the 2018 Pakistan Election:Based on The Perspective of Political Mobilization MechanismLi

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【作者】 李捷赵磊

【Author】 Li Jie;Zhao Lei;

【机构】 兰州大学政治与国际关系学院兰州大学阿富汗研究中心

【摘要】 2018年大选是巴基斯坦国内政治发展进程中重要事件。大选结果出人意料,草根特质显著的正义运动党获得了多数席位并成功组阁,打破了过去巴政局两党独大的局面。透过政治动员机制的视角,正义运动党在长期政治斗争的过程中树立了可信赖的公众形象,其以街头政治和互联网为主要发声平台,通过建构出与青年人文化背景、生活体验相符的话语框架,与民众形成共鸣,使反腐败成为了国内重要的政治议题。由于政治动员存在着"滞后效应",民众对现状的不满和对新巴基斯坦的渴望将长时间影响巴国政治生态。对正义运动党胜选原因的分析不仅能够明晰巴政局变化的原因,而且能为我国推进中巴经济走廊建设提供重要的启示。

【Abstract】 The 2018 election is an important event in the domestic political development of Pakistan. The result of the election was unexpected. The grass-roots Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf won the election and successfully formed a government. It broke the previous situation of two parties dominating politics of Pakistan. Through the perspective of political mobilization mechanism,Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has built a credible public image during the long political struggle. Taking street politics and social media as the main platform to speak,anti-corruption has become an important political issue in Pakistan by constructing a discourse framework consistent with the cultural background and life experience of young people and resonating with the public. Because of the hysteresis effect on political mobilization,popular discontent with the status quo and aspiration for a new Pakistan will influence Pakistani political ecology for a long time. The analysis of the reasons for the victory of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in the election can not only clarify the reasons for the political changes in Pakistan,but also provide important inspiration for China to promote the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

【基金】 兰州大学2019年“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”重点研究基地项目——“撤军背景下的阿富汗局势及影响”(项目编号:2019jbkyjd007);专项资金自由探索项目“巴基斯坦正义运动党崛起原因的分析”(项目编号:2019jbkyxs016)的阶段性成果
  • 【文献出处】 印度洋经济体研究 ,Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review , 编辑部邮箱 ,2019年04期
  • 【分类号】D735.3
  • 【被引频次】2
  • 【下载频次】377
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