【摘要】 为了分析人口转变对中国经济增长的影响,利用1990-2013年我国31个省级行政区相关数据构建面板数据模型进行检验.结果表明:研究期内我国人口转变带来了2个有利于经济增长的红利效应,一是劳动力数量的充足供给,二是老年人口增多导致社会储蓄增加带来的资本积累,这2个效应都直接或间接地促进了经济增长;在此基础上,将人口年龄结构与教育水平相结合,进一步研究了人口红利作用下的人力资本效应.从全国层面来看,人力资本效应显著,从地区层面来看,东部地区的人力资本效应显著,而中、西部地区不显著.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to study the effects of the demographic dividend on economic growth, a panel data model has been built with 31 provincial data from 1990 to 2013. The results show the demographic transition brought two bonus effects to promote the economic growth: one is the sufficient supply of labor force; another is increasing savings effect resulting from the increase in the elderly population. These two effects both promote China’s economic growth directly or indirectly. Second, we combine the population age structure and the level of education to analyze the role of human capital of demographic dividend. The results show that the effect of human capital is significant from the national level; for the regional level, the human capital of the eastern region is significant, while the middle and western regions are not significant.更多还原