【摘要】 "中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组于2019年2月发布了中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的第二十六次预测。预测显示,今明两年中国经济增速"稳中趋缓"的态势还将持续,但仍可维持在6.2%—6.5%的区间内,不会发生大幅下滑的情况;而受全球经济扩张趋缓的影响,今明两年出口导向的制造业投资增长将面临较大的下行压力。同时,非国有投资低速增长的态势依然会持续。在现阶段"投资驱动"的增长方式尚未转变的情况下,民间投资增速难以快速反弹时,"稳增长"——"宽信用"——"地方政府、国有企业以及房地产企业高杠杆""家庭高负债率"——"紧信用、金融整顿"——"增速下降"的循环就难以破解。降低社会保险费率的模拟结果则显示,无论是将企业和个人少缴的社保费用转移作为企业利润增加,还是转移作为居民劳动报酬的增加,均有助于提升经济增长速度,激励企业投资,带动财政收入增长,促进就业增加,进而提高居民收入,促进居民消费提高。因此,相关部门应全面支持民企融资,不仅仅是为了实现短期内"稳投资"的目标,更应着眼于实现长期"提升企业竞争力"的目标;在保持货币流动性合理充裕的同时,还需为稳定有效投资增长提供条件;应继续实施大规模的普惠性减税降费政策,以减轻宏观税负,同时适当降低社会保险费率,切实减轻企业负担、降低企业成本,以推动扶持中小企业发展,实现就业的稳定增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Xiamen University research team held its 26 th press conference on economic forecast based on the China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(CQMM) in February 2019. The forecast covers the main indicators of China’s macro-economy for the eight quarters of 2019 and 2020, with a focus on the macro-economic effects of lowering social security contribution rates. The research team found that lowering social security contributions would increase economic growth, stimulate domestic consumption and fiscal revenue growth, and encourage enterprises to increase investment, thereby improving employment and household incomes. Based on the forecasts and policy simulation results, the research team recommends: fully supporting the financing of private enterprises in order to not only achieve the goal of "stable investment" in the short term, but also attain the goal of "enhancing the competitiveness of enterprises" in the long run; maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity of currency to provide conditions for stable and effective investment; and continuing the large-scale inclusive tax reduction and fee reduction policies to reduce macro tax burdens, while appropriately reducing social security contribution rates, which will effectively ease the burdens on enterprises, cut their costs, promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and achieve stable employment growth.更多还原