【摘要】 基于2010年和2012年的中国家庭追踪调查数据,首先通过全体样本的Cox比例风险模型回归,实证检验中国居民初婚的婚前同居与婚姻稳定性之间的关系;然后基于不同出生世代子样本的回归,检验随着同居的蔓延,自选择变化导致的婚前同居与婚姻稳定性之间关系的变化;最后采用倾向得分匹配法进行样本匹配,通过比较匹配前后回归结果中"是否婚前同居"变量系数的变化,以进行自选择效应的识别。研究发现,整体而言,中国居民的婚前同居与婚姻稳定性负相关;对于出生于不同世代的居民,婚前同居与婚姻稳定性之间关系的大小和显著性发生变化,且随着同居在不同世代群组中的蔓延,婚前同居与婚姻稳定性之间的负向关系减弱;自选择效应基本解释了中国居民的婚前同居与婚姻稳定性之间的负向关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using data from China Family Panel Study in 2010 and 2012. First of all,through the Cox’s proportional hazards regression model of all samples,we examine the relationship between premarital cohabitation and marital stability of first marriage;Then based on different cohort subsamples,we test with the spread of cohabitation,the change of the relationship between premarital cohabitation and marital stability which caused by the dynamic of self-selection;Finally,Propensity Score Matching method is employed to sample match,By comparing the change of variable coefficient of"whether cohabitation"before and after the match,so as to identify the self-selection effect. The results showed that,On the whole,premarital cohabitation is negatively related to the stability of marriage in china;For people born in different generations,the size and significant of the relationship between premarital cohabitation and marital stability changes,And with the spread of cohabitation,the negative relationship between premarital cohabitation and marital stability weakened;The self-selection almost fully explain the negative relationship between premarital cohabitation and marital stability in China.更多还原