【摘要】 为了探明山区长大下坡路段货车各行车风险因素间内在关联、层次结构,并明确各风险因素的重要度,找出关键风险致因,从交通安全和系统工程观点出发,同时结合文献萃取法和Delphi法构建出山区长大下坡路段货车行车风险因素集,基于决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)和解释结构模型(ISM)存在的一定共性,吸取IMS法和DEMATEL法的优点,运用集成DEMATEL-ISM方法将复杂的行车风险因素关系转化为直观的具有良好层次结构关系的山区长大下坡路段货车行车风险因素识别模型,从而计算各行车风险因素的中心度与原因度,根据中心度确定行车风险因素的重要程度,根据原因度明确行车风险因素属性,并由此找出复杂因果关系中的关键风险因素及货车行车安全系统中最直接、最根本的风险因素。研究结果表明:长大下坡路段限速值、车辆性能、动态反应判断能力、疲劳驾驶等是导致行车风险发生的最重要因素,而交通设施完备程度、年龄、道路结构物的重要度最低,影响程度最小;在原因因素中,气象状况原因度最大,对其他风险因素的影响大,且自身所受其他因素的影响也较小,而货车车型大小对其他风险因素影响较小;在结果因素中,超速的原因度绝对值最大,受其他风险因素的影响最大,属于行车风险系统的近邻风险层,是产生交通风险的直接致因;近邻风险是交通事故发生的最直接诱因,过渡风险与其他风险因素存在着联动关系,其既容易对系统中其他风险因素的变化敏感,也容易影响其他风险因素,本质风险驾驶人安全意识与态度是整个系统的根源性影响因素;关键链接因素交通流量、纵坡坡度和坡长、气象状况、交通组成特性与其他风险因素存在强联动关系,它们与其他风险因素发生复杂的非线性交互的可能性大,从而增大酿成交通事故的可能。更多还原

【Abstract】 The intrinsic correlation and hierarchical structure among driving risk factors in long downhill sections of mountainous areas were obtained,to clarify the importance of each risk factor and determine key risk causes from the viewpoints of traffic safety and system engineering.Using literature extraction and the Delphi method,the risk factors were set up for truck driving in the long downhill sections of a mountain area.Based on the common characteristics of decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)and interpretative structural modelling(ISM),the advantages of IMS and DEMATEL method were clarified,and the complex risk factors were applied using the DEMATEL-ISM method.The relationship was transformed into an intuitionistic model of truck driving risk identification a good hierarchical structure in the high and lower slopes of the mountain area.The centrality and cause degree of various driving risk factors were calculated for determining the importance of the driving risk factors according to the central degree,and for defining the attributes of the driving risk factors according to the original degree.To find out the key risk factors in the complex causality and the most direct and fundamental risk factors in the truck driving safety system,for improving the safety of truck driving in the long downhill section of mountain area.The results show that speed limit value,vehicle performance,dynamic response judgment ability and driving fatigue are the most important factors leading to the occurrence of driving risk,while the importance of traffic facilities readiness,age and road structure is the lowest,of which the impact on the safety system of driving risk is the least.Among the irregular factors,meteorological condition has the greatest degree of effect,which also has a greater impact on other risk factors,while the other factors have a smaller impact in itself.The size of truck has a smallest impact on other risk factors.Among the resulting factors,the absolute value of cause degree of over-speed is the greatest,which is the most affected by other risk factors,belonging to the near-neighbor risk layer of the driving risk system,and it is the direct cause of traffic risk.Neighbor risk is the most direct cause of traffic accidents.Transition risk has a linkage with other risk factors,which is easy to be sensitive to the changes of other risk factors in the system,but also to affect other risk factors.Essential risk driver’s safety awareness and attitude is the root factor of the whole system.The key link factors that traffic flow,gradient and slope length,meteorological conditions,and traffic composition characteristics,have strong linkage with other risk factors.They have a great possibility of complex non-linear interaction with other risk factors,thus increasing the possibility of traffic accidents.4 tabs,4 figs,27 refs.更多还原