【摘要】 运用文献资料法、数理统计法、比较分析法对第1-16届世锦赛男子投掷成绩发展变化特征进行分析,并根据灰色预测模型及置信区间对第17届世锦赛男子投掷各单项前8名平均成绩进行预测,结合当前我国男子投掷竞技表现,为我国男子投掷成功备战第17届世锦赛提供参考。结果表明:男子铅球和铁饼成绩变化起伏不大且正处于上升阶段;男子标枪正处在发展的黄金时期,竞技水平较高,竞争激烈;男子链球成绩正呈现下降趋势,且下降幅度较大;第17届世锦赛男子铅球、铁饼、标枪及链球前8名平均成绩预测值分别为21.50m、66.23m、88.79m、77.06m,从预测值来看,第17届世锦赛男子铅球和标枪前8名平均成绩会有一定幅度上升,而男子铁饼和链球前8名平均成绩会出现小幅度下降,我国男子投掷应根据自身竞技水平、世锦赛男子投掷各单项成绩发展特征及预测情况进行针对性训练、排兵布阵;另外通过分析世界男子投掷项目成绩发展变化趋势,从运动员选材、运动训练、投掷技术给我国教练员及运动员提出建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzed the changes of development and change of men’s throwing performance at the seventeen World Athletics Championships by means of literature study, mathematical statistics and comparative analysis so as to predict the top eight athletes’ performance of men’s throwing at the 17 th World Athletics Championships according to the gray prediction model and confidence interval. In view of with the status quo of the Chinese men’s throwing performance, it was hoped to provide reference for China’s men’s preparation for the 17 th World Championships. The result showed that the achievement of the men’s shot put and discus changes and was in a rising stage, and the men’s javelin was in the golden period of development, the competitive level was higher, the competition was intense, the performance of men’s hammer decreased. The average predictive value of the top eight athletes’ shot put, discus, javelin and hammer were 21.50 m, 66.23 m, 88.79 m, 77.06 m respectively. Seen from the predicted values, the average performance of the men’s shot put and javelin would be better while that of the men’s discus and hammer would decline. The Chinese men’s throwing should be based on the athletic level, characteristics of the results of each event of throwing and the prediction of performance.Suggestions were given with regard to athletess selection, sports training and throwing techniques.更多还原