【摘要】 文章选取宏观经济环境、银行中长期信贷、国际资本冲击和资产泡沫这四类风险指标共计14个变量,采用因子分析法对2007年第二季度至2018年第四季度中长期信贷市场系统性风险进行测度。研究表明,2018年以来我国中长期信贷市场系统性风险持续下降但仍处在较高水平。另外,GDP同比增速越低、中长期存贷比越高、上证综合指数振幅越大,则其风险值就越高。更多还原

【Abstract】 The article selects four types of risk indicators: "macroeconomic environment", "bank medium-term and long-term credit", "international capital shock" and "asset bubble", including a total of 14 variables. And the article uses factor analysis to measure systemic risks from the second quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2018 in the medium and longterm credit markets. Research shows that since 2018, the systemic risk of China’s medium and long-term credit market has continued to decline but is still at a relatively high level. In addition, the lower the GDP growth rate is, the higher the medium and longterm deposit-to-deposit ratio is, and the greater the amplitude of the Shanghai Composite Index is, the higher the risk value is.更多还原