【摘要】 发展共享汽车可有效缓解城市交通拥堵和环境污染问题。基于演化博弈论,分析了政府、运营商、出行者三方在共享汽车发展过程中的行为策略,构建动态博弈模型,通过渐进稳定性分析得出了三方演化路径和稳定策略。结果显示:每个主体都有各自的具体影响因素。当形象效用提升幅度增大、管理成本减小、对私家车出行的惩罚增大时,政府倾向于选择"管理"策略;当大规模运营增加的额外成本减小、政府的政策优惠力度增大、汽车共享出行市场规模增大时,运营商倾向于选择"大规模运营"策略;当汽车共享出行与私家车出行的收益之差增大、政府的经济补贴增多、汽车共享服务水平损失参数下降时,出行者倾向于选择"转移"策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of shared-cars can effectively alleviate urban traffic congestion and environmental pollution.Based on the evolutionary game theory, this paper analyzes the behavioral strategies of the government, operators and travellers in the process of shared-cars’ development, constructs a dynamic game model, obtains the three-way evolution path and stability strategy by progressive stability analysis. The results show that each subject has its own specific influencing factors. When image utility increases, management costs decrease, and penalties for private car travel increase, the government tends to choose the "management" strategy; when the extra cost of large-scale operations increases, the government’s policy incentives increase, and the scale of the car-sharing travel market increases, operators tend to choose the"large-scale operation" strategy; when the difference between the revenue of car-sharing travel and private car travel increases, the government’s economic subsidies increase, and the loss of car-sharing service level parameters declines,travelers tend to choose the "transfer" strategy.更多还原