【摘要】 安全预警技术早已被广泛应用到各石油化工企业中,风险预警结合了异常工况发生的概率与后果,具有较好的预警效果。针对现有的风险预警多使用定性分析方法、准确性低等问题,提出石油化工装置长周期运行风险的超早期精确预警方法。运用损失函数定量评估参数偏离带来的预期损失,并运用剩余时间模型计算异常工况发生概率,从而得到参数偏离所产生的风险值,实现参数的风险预警。案例分析将该方法应用于石油化工企业不同装置不同参数的风险预警。结果表明,该方法可以辨识状态参数的早期偏离,并提前10 min左右检测到参数异常的产生,为识别石油化工装置长周期运行过程中异常工况的发生风险提供了早期预警方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Safety early-warning technology has long been widely used in petrochemical industry. Risk-early-warning has been a good method because it combines the probability and consequence of abnormal situation. The current risk early warning methods are mostly based on qualitative methods and the accuracy is not ideal. Therefore, a precise risk-early-warning method for long period running petrochemical devices is proposed. In this method, through applying Loss Function to quantitatively estimate the expected loss caused by parameters deviation, and also using Remaining Time Model to calculate the probability of abnormal situation, the risk value can be generated by analyzing parameters deviation, and thus achieve the parameter risk warning. This method was applied into the risk warning of different parameters on different devices in petrochemical industry. Test results showed that this method can effectively identify the early departure of state parameters, and can detect abnormal parameters ten minutes earlier. The proposed method can provide an accurate early warning method for possible abnormal risk during long period running of petrochemical devices.更多还原