【摘要】 基于"一带一路"背景下,利用可计算的一般均衡模型(CGE模型),设定了按时间分步、商品优先序甄选的逐渐消减关税的政策,分析了中国与中亚5国在农业领域的贸易合作对各国宏观经济与农业部门经济指标的影响。研究结果显示,在各项政策下,中国GDP累积存量会减少,但其对整体经济未造成较大负面影响。同时,此政策能够促进中亚各国GDP的增加,减少各国通货膨胀率,稳定参与国物价,增进中亚5国人民福利,促使良好、安定的社会局面形成。在水果蔬菜和肉制品方面中国具有优势,需加大投入,以促进与中亚5国间农业贸易,获得更多利润。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the Belt and Road Initiative and construction,the trade balance between China and the five Central Asian countries in the agricultural sector was analyzed by using a computable general equilibrium model.A policy of gradually reducing tariffs by time step and commodity priority is set.The simulation results show that this policy will reduce the cumulative stock of China’s GDP,although it has no major negative impacts on the overall economy.At the same time,this policy can promote the increase of GDP in Central Asian countries,reduce the inflation rate of various countries,stabilize the prices of participating countries,enhance the welfare of the five Central Asian countries,and promote a good and stable social situation.China has advantages in terms of fruits,vegetables and meat products,and needs to increase investment to promote agricultural trade with the five Central Asian countries and obtain more profits.更多还原