【摘要】 PPP(public-private-partnership)基础设施合作的稳定性会直接影响公共部门和社会资本的收益.基于"一带一路" PPP基础设施系统的复杂性和利益主体的多元性,利用演化博弈理论,构建东道国政府、我国企业、公众的三方演化博弈模型,分析影响PPP项目合作稳定性的主要因素,并运用Matlab对案例工程进行数值仿真.研究结果表明,较高的项目预期投资收益、招投标阶段有效的成本控制、东道国政府提供的合理政策支持、PPP基础设施项目国际关注度的提高,以及东道国政府和我国企业所给予公众的社会福利和优惠的适当减少,都能增强基础设施项目的合作稳定性.更多还原

【Abstract】 Stability of PPP(public-private-parternship) infrastructure cooperation directly affects benefits of public sector and social capital. Based on the complexity of PPP infrastructure system and diversity of stakeholders of "The Belt and Road", evolution game theory is used to build a tripartite model of host government, Chinese enterprises and local public to analyze the main factors influencing cooperation stability of PPP projects. Moreover, the evolution path and numerical simulation of infrastructure projects are carried on with Matlab. Research results show that the cooperation stability of PPP infrastructure projects can be improved by a higher expected investment income, effectively controlling bidding costs, strengthening the policy support from the host government, increasing international attention of PPP infrastructure and appropriately reducing social welfare and benefits to the public by host government and Chinese enterprises.更多还原