【摘要】 为结合定量模型和水资源承载力的内在机理评价安徽省16个地级市的水资源承载力状况,构建基于非对称联系云和风险矩阵的水资源承载力评价模型。首先确定水资源承载力评价指标体系,利用基于加速遗传算法的层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重,然后结合规定的评价标准构建基于非对称联系云和风险矩阵的水资源承载力评价模型(ACCRMM)。将该模型对2015年安徽省的水资源承载力进行应用的评价结果显示:16个地级市的水资源承载状况存在明显的区域差异,从南到北有依次减弱的趋势;皖北地区6个地级市的水资源承载力评价等级均为Ⅲ级;皖中地区4个地级市的水资源承载力评价等级为Ⅱ级;皖南地区的马鞍山、芜湖市的水资源承载力评价等级为Ⅱ级,而铜陵、池州、黄山、宣城市的水资源承载力评价等级为Ⅰ级。评价结果与安徽省水资源现状基本一致,表明ACCRMM用来评价区域水资源承载力具有较高的应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province by combining quantitative method and inherent mechanism of water resources carrying capacity, an evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on asymmetric connection cloud and risk-matrix was established. The model established the evaluation index firstly, using the analytic hierarchy process based on accelerating genetic algorithm(AGA-FAHP) to determine the weight of each evaluation index, combining the evaluation criteria established asymmetric contact clouds and risk matrix of water resources carrying capacity evaluation model(ACCRMM) eventually. This model had been used to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Anhui Province in 2015, the results show that there were obvious regional differences in water resources carrying capacity of various prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province, and the trend of decreasing from south to north was generally in turn. The water resources carrying capacity in the north of Anhui Province are all of grade III. The water resources carrying capacity are all of grade II. The water resources carrying capacity of Ma’anshan and Wuhu in the south of Anhui Province are all of grade II, while that of Tongling, Chizhou, Huangshan and Xuancheng are at grade I. The evaluation results are basically consistent with the current situation of water resources in Anhui Province, indicating that ACCRMM model has a good application value in regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation.更多还原