【摘要】 2018年是国际金融危机爆发后的第十年,也是极不寻常的一年,美国通过采取"减税+加息+缩表+贸易保护主义"的政策组合,给世界经济复苏造成了极大的冲击。逆全球化思潮抬头,全球贸易、投资、工业生产等均出现不同程度的疲态。2019年,美国系列政策仍将是最大的不确定性因素,叠加全球债务水平高筑、地缘政治冲突等一系列负面因素的影响,世界经济下行风险明显增加,预计全球经济增速将进一步放缓。更多还原

【Abstract】 2018 is the tenth year after the outbreak of the international financial crisis,and also a very unusual year when by adopting the policy combination of"tax reduction+interest rate increase+ balance sheet contraction + trade protectionism",the United States has greatly hit the recovery of the world economy. With the rise of anti-globalization trend,global trade,investment,industrial production and so on all show varying degrees of fatigue.In2019,a series of U.S.policies will remain the biggest uncertainties,together with the impact of a series of negative factors,such as the high level of global debt and geopolitical conflicts,the downside risks of the world economy will significantly increase,and global economic growth is expected to slow down further.更多还原