【摘要】 随着多边谈判削减全球关税,各国普遍增加非关税措施使用频次。利用CEPII BACI数据库中HS92六位数商品贸易数据,测算1995～2015年我国与20个"一带一路"沿线国家四类农产品出口三元边际,结合"措施-产品"层面分析非关税措施对我国农产品出口三元边际影响。研究发现,我国不同时期农产品出口增长动力源自不同边际;计量结果表明,措施发起国对我国使用非关税措施显著降低我国农产品出口扩展边际,对数量边际和价格边际无显著影响;措施发起国对所有国家统一实施非关税措施显著提升我国农产品出口数量边际,对扩展边际和价格边际无显著影响。研究揭示我国农产品出口增长动力,为我国应对非关税措施提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the reduction of global tariffs by multilateral negotiations, many different counties have increased the use of the NTMs(Non-Tariff Measures). By using the HS92 six-digital trade data from CEPII BACI, we measure Chinese four kinds of agricultural exports of extensive margin, quantity margin and price margin, which from 20 counties along the Belt and Road during 1995-2015. And the impact of NTMs on the margins at the "measuredriving force for the growth of Chinese agricultural exports had come from different margins; the econometric results showed that, the NTMs which were China faced, have significantly reduced the extensive margin of Chinese agricultural exports and had no significant effect on the quantity margin and price margin; the NTMs which were all the countries faced, had significantly increased the quantity margins of Chinese agricultural exports and had no significant impact on the extensive margin and price margin. The research not only revealed the growth momentum of Chinese agricultural product export, but also provided reference for Chinese allegations of non-tariff measures.更多还原