【摘要】 为了掌握沈阳地区地温变化规律,并提供更好的大田地温预报服务,降低播种风险,提高粮食生产安全,利用沈阳地区7个气象站点1981—2015年地温和气温数据,运用数理统计方法,分析近35 a地温和气温的变化规律,建立了春播期(4月和5月)地温预报模型。结果表明:1981—2010年,年代际温度呈上升趋势,气温的变化导致地温的变化也更加明显,气温和各层地温的气候倾向率为0. 426—0. 549℃/10 a,4—10月0—5 cm、5—10 cm、10—20 cm每一层的地温差为1. 5℃、0. 5℃和0. 5℃; 0—20 cm地温以及气温在1996年前后发生了突变;春播期西部地区0 cm、5 cm、10 cm的地温和气温差值4—5月由较低转为较高;地温预报模型t检验的P值在P=0. 01水平差异均不显著,相对误差控制在±10%以内,可以用于沈阳春播期(4月和5月)地温预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 For understanding the change rule of ground temperature in Shenyang area,providing better forecast service on field temperature,reducing the risk of sow ing and improving grain production safety,based on the data of air and ground temperature from the seven meteorological stations in Shenyang area from 1981 to 2015,the change rules of air and ground temperature in recent 35 years were analyzed using mathematical statistics methods and a ground temperature forecasting model for the spring sow ing period( April and May) was established. The results show that from 1981 to 2010,the decadal temperature show s an increasing trend and the change of air temperature results in an obvious change of ground temperature. The climate tendency rates of air and ground temperature are between 0. 426 ℃/10 a and 0. 549 ℃/10 a. In the past 35 years,the differences of ground temperature at the soil depth of 0-5 cm,5-10 cm,and 10-20 cm are 1. 5 ℃,0. 5 ℃,and 0. 5 ℃ during April and October,respectively. The ground temperature at the soil depth of 0-20 cm and air temperature undergo a climate abrupt change in1996,affecting the changing trend of temperature. During the spring sow ing period,the differences between air temperature and ground temperature at the soil depth of 0 cm,5 cm and 10 cm in the w estern region change respectively from the low value in April to the high value in May. The t-test of the ground temperature forecast model doesn’t show significant difference at P = 0. 01 level,and the relative error is within ± 10%,indicating that the model can be applied for the prediction of ground temperature during the spring sow ing period( April and May) in Shenyang area.更多还原