【摘要】 由于地震灾害及次生火灾在演化过程所产生的交叉性、耦合性和复杂性等特征,导致次生火灾一般呈高斯分布或近似高斯分布,特别当研究区域内样本数据精度不高或信息不足时,利用传统评估模型及方法有一定的局限性。在Monte Carlo随机模拟基础上,结合三角模糊数理论,建立地震次生火灾潜在风险评估的随机模拟-三角模糊理论(SS-TFN)耦合模型,首先,利用专家意见和AHP法来确定指标权重度量值,然后,利用具有11级划分标准的模糊语义,定量描述城市地震次生火灾灾害风险评估指标的风险级别和风险重要性,其次,建立研究区域内待评城市综合风险取值的置信区间范围,最后,对研究区域各城市的次生火灾状况进行综合评估。研究结果表明:经耦合模型模拟实验20 000次时,其计算结果已收敛,可得各城市的系统综合风险模拟值的置信水平95%下的置信区间值,可为抗震防灾规划提供相关决策支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Due to the characteristics of cross,coupling and complexity in the process of earthquake disaster and secondary fire,which is usually lead to obey the Gauss distribution or approximate Gauss distribution. The traditional evaluation model and method have some limitations especially when the sample data in the study area is not accurate or lack of information. Therefore,the SS-TFN coupling model for the risk assessment of potential postearthquake fire is established based on the stochastic simulation of Monte Carlo and Triangular Fuzzy Number theory. Firstly,the expert opinion and AHP method are used to determine the index weight measurement. Then,the risk level and risk importance of urban post-earthquake fire disaster are quantitatively described by the fuzzy semantics with 11 grades. Secondly,the confidence interval range of the comprehensive risk value in the study area is calculated. Finally,a comprehensive assessment of urban post-earthquake fire in the study area is made. The results show that the convergence of the coupled model is achieved at the 20 000 time through example analysis.Therefore,the integrated risk simulation value of the secondary fire system can be obtained under confidence interval of confidence level 95%,which can provide decision support for earthquake prevention and disaster prevention planning.更多还原