【摘要】 为分析道路交通事故发生的原因,以国家车辆事故深度调查体系(national automobile accident in-depth investigation system,NAIS)数据库内2 384起事故案例为样本,从驾驶员角度出发,借鉴人因分析和分类系统(HFACS)、驾驶人风险意识量表建立了道路安全事故驾驶员人因分类框架,并运用数据关联挖掘Apriori算法挖掘驾驶员因素间的强关联规则。结果表明:驾驶员的主要不安全行为是未意识到危险和习惯性违规;容忍疲劳和饮酒驾驶的驾驶员同时具备多种不安全行为;风险容忍行为与不安全行为因果关系显著,即高风险容忍度驾驶员具有较高的不安全驾驶行为。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the aspect of drivers,the classification of drivers and objective causes( vehicles and roads) are set up to analyze the causes of traffic accidents by taking 2 384 accidents of reports in national vehicle accident investigation database as an example and referring to the analysis of drivers and objective causes,HFACS and the driver’s risk awareness scale. Apriori is applied to find out the strong association rules between drivers and objective causes. The results show that the traffic accidents mainly results from drivers’ illegal acts,such as fatigue and drinking. There is an apparent causal relationship between risk tolerance behaviors and unsafe behaviors. In other words,the drivers with higher risk tolerance have fewer safe behaviors.更多还原