【摘要】 使用超效率DEA模型测算2002—2016年中国30个省市公路交通能源环境效率,构建空间杜宾模型与空间误差修正模型测算公路交通长期和短期能源回弹效应。研究表明,公路交通能源环境效率存在显著的区域和时间差异,以能源服务对能源环境效率的弹性作为能源回弹效应的度量指标,能源回弹效应值较低。长期内,客运交通与货运交通能源回弹效应分别为9.16%～10.14%与23.44～25.8%;短期内,客运交通能源回弹效应不显著,货运交通能源回弹效应为13.72%。能源环境效率提升所带来的能源节约并未被能源回弹效应大幅度折抵。以能源服务对燃料价格的弹性作为能源回弹效应的度量指标,客运交通与货运交通短期能源回弹效应分别为68.22%与71.68%。能源回弹效应的空间溢出效应作用显著:长期内,邻省燃料价格每下降1%,本省客运周转量增加0.4365%,货运周转量增加0.68%;短期内,邻省燃料价格每下降1%,本省客运周转量增加0.4119%,货运周转量增加0.6977%。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper uses the super-efficiency DEA model to calculate the energy and environmental efficiency of road transport in 30 provinces of China from 2002 to 2016.It constructs a spatial Durbin model and a spatial error correction model to calculate the long-term and short-term energy rebound effect of road transport respectively.The results show that:there are remarkable regional and temporal differences in energy and environmental efficiency of road transport.When the elasticity of energy services to energy and environmental efficiency is used as a measure of energy rebound effect,the value of energy rebound effect is low.In long term,the energy rebound effect of passenger transport and freight transport is 9.16%～10.14%and 23.44%～25.8%respectively,in short term that is not significant,while that of freight transport is 13.72%.The energy savings brought about by the improvement of energy and environmental efficiency have not been substantially offset.By taking the elasticity of energy services to fuel prices as a measure of energy rebound effect,the short-term energy rebound effects of passenger transport and freight transport are 68.22% and 71.68%.The spatial spillover effect of energy rebound effect noteworthy:in long term,the fuel price of neighbouring provinces decreases by 1%,passenger and freight turnover increases by 0.4365% and 0.68%;in short term,for every 1% drop in fuel prices in neighbouring provinces,passenger and freight turnover increased by 0.4119% and 0.6977% respectively.更多还原