【摘要】 开展玉溪市水资源短缺风险时空分异及预测研究对于水资源的合理利用和区域的可持续发展具有重要意义。基于模糊聚类法揭示玉溪市2005-2015年水资源短缺风险时空分布,预估2020、2030年的短缺风险,并利用灰色关联法分析各指标对短缺风险的影响大小。结果表明:(1)玉溪市2005-2015年水资源短缺风险时间差异显著,呈现先增加后减小的趋势。(2)各区县水资源短缺风险东高西低。(3)2020年在平水和枯水条件下,各区县处于2～3级短缺风险。在特枯水年,各区县介于3～4级风险; 2030年在平水和枯水条件下,各区县介于2～4级风险。在特枯水年,处于4～5级风险。(4)农业用水量对短缺风险影响最大,生态用水量和有效灌溉面积影响最小。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is important to study the temporal and spatial distribution variation and prediction of water shortage risk for the rational exploitation and utilization of water resources and sustainable development of society in Yuxi.The fuzzy cluster analysis method is used to analyze the risk of water shortage in the districts and counties of Yuxi from 2005 to 2015 and the water shortage risk in 2020 and 2030 is predicted.The results show that the temporal heterogeneity of the water shortage risk in Yuxi prefecture-level city is remarkable;it increases originally and then decreases between 2005 and 2015;the risk of water shortages in the east is higher than that in the west;in 2020,the 2nd and 3rd grade risk is faced by the districts and counties in Yuxi of normal and low precipitation years;and the 4th and 3rd grade risk are for extremely low precipitation year;in 2030,the water shortage risk is the 2nd and 4th grade of normal and low precipitation years,and the 4th and 5th grade of extremely low precipitation year.Agricultural water consumption has the greatest impact on water shortage risk.However,ecological water consumption and effective irrigation area have not significant effect on the risk.更多还原