【摘要】 民航运输发展所需基础投资建设周期长、投资大、专有性强,固定投资数量应与民航发展阶段规模相匹配,科学的需求预测是合理规划民航基础建设和机队建设的基础。运用系统动力学原理,分析航空客运需求内外影响因素,建立中国民航客运市场需求预测的系统动力学模型,因素考虑更加全面,精度提升明显。运用所建模型,基于我国经济社会发展水平,预测我国航空客运需求量将于2024年左右达到10亿人次。民航客运市场需求系统动力学模型,对于派生的民航运输长期需求预测与分析,具有普遍适用性和长效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The large foundation investments for civil aviation transportation have long construction cycles and are fiercely proprietary. The quantity of fixed investments should match the scale of civil aviation development. Scientific demand forecasting is the basis for rational planning of civil aviation infrastructure and fleet construction.The principle of system dynamics is used to analyze the internal and external factors of air passenger demand,and to build the system dynamics model of China’s civil passenger transport market demand forecast. The considerations are more comprehensive and the accuracy is improved obviously. Using the model built, based on China’s economic and social development level, it is predicted that China’s air passenger demand will reach 1 billion people in 2024. The system dynamics model of civil aviation passenger market demand has universal app licability and long-term effectiveness for the prediction and analysis of long-term derived civil aviation transportation demand.更多还原