【摘要】 短期数值天气预报模式的发展,由于具备了对动力辐合、湿物理及边界层等过程和实际地形的刻画能力,在分辨率提高到几十公里尺度时,可以对暴雨进行数值预报。经过近50 a的发展,暴雨中尺度模式经历了静力平衡到非静力平衡、粗分辨率到高分辨率、简单物理过程到细致物理过程、云雨隐式预报到显式预报、简单初始化到复杂同化等的转变。本文从暴雨中尺度模式框架、物理过程和初始化方法三个方面,回顾了国内外主要暴雨中尺度模式的发展历程和重要进展,同时指出了未来模式可能的发展趋势并给予了分析讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 The short-range numerical weather prediction model has been developed as a tool to forecast the torrential rainfall since it has the capability to describe the dynamic convergence, fundamental physics and the real topography reasonably when the horizontal resolution is increased to a few tens of kilometers. The nearly fifty years of development in the meso-scale numerical prediction model for heavy rainfall has witnessed great changes in the dynamical core from hydrostatic to non-hydrostatic, the resolution from coarse to fine, the physical processes from simple to comprehensive, cloud and precipitation forecast from implicit to explicit and initialization from simple interpolation to complicated assimilation. In this paper, we mainly focus on dynamical frames, physical packages and initialization techniques of the meso-scale numerical heavy rainfall prediction model to analyze its important advances at home and abroad. Some future directions of the model development are also suggested. The review will be helpful to understand the current status and development trend of meso-scale model as an important tool to study and forecast heavy rainfall.更多还原