【摘要】 降水类天气对社会公众的日常生产生活具有显著影响,以德州市为例,利用2015—2017年德州市小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨及雷电五类降水事件对应的"12121"拨打量数据,基于趋势分析方法和信息扩散理论,分析拨打量与降水量、降水时间的关系,研究社会公众对降水类天气气象风险的关注情况。结果表明,"12121"日拨打量大致呈"双峰型"变化趋势,峰值出现在上午7时和下午18—20时;"12121"拨打量在降水天气开始前两天逐渐增加,至降水当日呈显著增加趋势,降水开始前1 h达到最大值;"12121"拨打量年变化趋势与降水量年变化均呈显著的"单峰型"趋势,但拨打量峰值出现在6月,降水量峰值出现在8月;德州地区用户对大雨的关注度要明显高于其他降水类天气,收听12121的粉丝中随机忠诚的粉丝占比最高。分析结果可为提高公众气象服务的提前量和精确度提供科学参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Precipitation event has a significant impact on the daily production and life of the general public.Dezhou city as an example,based on theory and methods of trend analysis and information diffusion,it choose occuring days of precipitation event and dialing number of wearher service phone(named 12121) from 2015 to 2017,which are classified as scattered precipitation,moderate shower,heavy rain, thunderstorm and haze,analyzing the relationship between dial up and precipitation and precipitation time, and studying the public’s attention to precipitation and weather risk.The result show that "12121" daily calls generally showed a "bimodal" trend, the peak appeared at 7∶00 a.m. and 18—20∶00 p.m.;the number of "12121" increases gradually at the first 2 days of the precipitation weather, to a significant increase in the day of precipitation, and the maximum 1 hours before the onset of rainfall;the annual change trend of the number of "12121" and the annual change of precipitation showed a significant "single peak" trend, but the peak value of the dialing amount appeared in June, the peak of the precipitation appeared in August, and the public concern for the heavy rain was significantly higher than other precipitation weather, and the users with the random loyalty were the highest. The results can provide scientific reference for improving the advance and accuracy of public weather service.更多还原