【摘要】 2019年5月25—30日广西出现了持续性暴雨过程,引发洪涝和衍生灾害。利用国家气候中心大气监测资料和第二代月动力延伸预测模式业务系统(DERF2.0)预报资料,研究了这次持续性暴雨的背景特征,并对这次暴雨过程的延伸期预报效果进行评估。结果表明:(1)此次持续性暴雨发生在一次MJO对流活跃区东传的背景下。(2)DERF2.0模式提前10-30d预报出广西5月第6侯降雨偏多的趋势,并在4月30日、5月10日分别预测出这次暴雨过程出现前后有强降雨,但有1-3d的误差,且对过程强度的预测不够精准。更多还原

【Abstract】 From May 25 to 30,2019,there was a continuous rainstorm process in Guangxi,which caused floods and derivative disasters.Based on the atmospheric monitoring data of the National Climate Center and the forecast data of second-generation monthly dynamic extended range forecast operational system(DERF2.0),the background characteristics of the persistent rainstorm were studied,and the effect of the extended period forecast was evaluated.The results showed that(1) the continuous rainstorm occurred in the context of an eastward transmission of the MJO convection zone.(2) The DERF2.0 model predicted the trend of more rainfall on May 25-30 in Guangxi,10-30 days ahead of schedule.The model also predicted that there would be strong rainfall before and after the rainstorm on April 30 and May 10,respectively.However,the model results had an error of 1-3 days,and the prediction of process intensity was not accurate enough.更多还原