【摘要】 利用常规观测资料和EC集合预报资料,基于集合敏感性方法 ,首先分析了2018年10月21日广西沿海局地特大暴雨过程的降水影响天气系统及关键区,并进一步分析了集合预报效果,得到不同层次气压场及风场的降水敏感特征以及集合预报降水预报偏差的可能主要原因,所得结论可供预报参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on conventional observation data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ensemble forecast data, this study analyzes the precipitation-affected weather system and key areas of the torrential rain on the coast of Guangxi on October 21 th, 2018, and further analyzes the effect of ensemble prediction,then find out the precipitation sensitivity characteristics on different levels of pressure field and wind field and possible reasons for ensemble forecast deviation on precipitation forecast. The conclusions obtained are available for forecasting.更多还原