【摘要】 针对正确构建合适的预警预报模型或方法是影响斜坡灾害成功预警预报的核心问题。本文总结了斜坡预警中常用的多种模型与方法,及其在典型工程中的应用效果,重点对其适用性进行了综合对比分析。通过对常用的预警预报方法(极限平衡法、Verhulst模型、灰色预测模型、指数平滑法、神经网络等)在适用条件、优劣性、可操作性及应用效果的详细分析,得到不同模型的选取原则与标准,并结合深圳边坡的特点及影响因素建立对应的预警模型,结果表明在构建斜坡灾害预警预报模型上具有一定的指导意义和应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the key problem of influencing the successful early warning and forecasting of slope disasters, the proper early warning and forecasting model or method is constructed correctly. This paper summarizes various models and methods commonly used in slope early warning, and their application effects in typical projects, focusing on the comprehensive comparative analysis of their applicability. Through the detailed analysis of the application conditions, advantages and disadvantages, maneuverability and application effects of the commonly used early warning and forecasting methods(limit equilibrium method, Verhulst model, grey forecasting model, exponential smoothing method, neural network, etc.), the selection principles and standards of different models are obtained, and the construction of different models is combined with the characteristics and influencing factors of Shenzhen slope. The corresponding early warning model is established, and the results show that it has certain guiding significance and application value in building the early warning and forecasting model of slope disasters.更多还原