【摘要】 干旱是全球普遍存在的对人类影响最为严重的一种自然灾害。近百年气候显著变暖和社会快速发展,加剧了干旱的影响程度,增强了干旱灾害的风险,给全球农业、水资源、生态环境安全以及社会可持续发展造成巨大威胁。提高干旱监测和早期预警技术是应对、管理干旱以及减轻干旱脆弱性的基础。本文介绍了近年来美国在干旱监测、预测业务及研究方面取得的新进展,回顾了美国在区域和全球尺度下干旱监测及数值模式预报系统的发展,重点概述了干旱科学研究与技术进步,并结合2016年美国政府部门的抗旱任务书,讨论了干旱监测和预测面临的机遇与挑战,为我国干旱监测与预测发展提供新视角。更多还原

【Abstract】 Drought is the most severe natural hazard affecting on human society and it exists generally in the whole global. In recent a century, the climate warming and society developing exacerbated the degree of drought influence and risk, which brought a great threat to global agriculture, water resource, ecological environment security and society sustainable development. It is the basis of fighting and managing drought and reducing drought vulnerability to improve the drought monitoring and early warning skill. In this paper, we introduce the new progress of drought monitoring and prediction operation and research in the United States in recent years, and provide an overview of the development of regional and global drought monitoring and prediction systems(DMAPS). It focuses on the scientific researches and technology improvement of drought. At last, the opportunities and challenges of drought monitoring and prediction are discussed referring to NOAA Interagency Drought task Force in 2016, which is beneficial to provide a new perspective for drought monitoring and forecast in China.更多还原