【摘要】 国际油价的持续波动对页岩气等非常规油气的开发利用冲击巨大,未来页岩气开发能否承受油价波动的影响有待进一步研究。本文从技术经济评价的角度,选取净现值为页岩气开发全生命周期效益评价的指标,理清国际油价波动对页岩气开发效益影响的传导机制,通过趋势分析、相关性分析、协整检验和回归分析,量化油价对页岩气价格、市场规模、投资及相关运营成本等开发效益评价关键参数的影响,结合折现现金流法,定量研究油价波动对页岩气开发效益的影响程度。认为虽然现阶段国际油价波动对我国页岩气开发效益的影响较小,但当财税政策、定价机制和市场规模稳定后,油价波动对页岩气开发效益的影响会更加凸显,页岩气开发企业应当对油价波动有所重视。研究结果有助于认识油价风险,辅助页岩气开发企业进行投资决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The continuous fluctuation of international oil prices has had a huge impact on the development and utilization of unconventional petroleum and nature gas such as shale gas.Whether the future development of shale gas can withstand oil price fluctuations needs further research.From the perspective of techno-economic appraisal,the net present value is selected as the indicator of the life cycle benefit evaluation of shale gas development,and the transmission mechanism of the impact of international oil price fluctuation on the development benefit of shale gas is clarified.Through trend analysis,correlation analysis and co-integration test and regression analysis,quantify the impact of oil price on key parameters of development benefit evaluation such as shale gas price,market size,investment and related operating costs,combined with discounted cash flow method to study the impact of oil price fluctuation on shale gas development benefit based on the oil price scenario assumption.It is believed that although the current international oil price fluctuations have small impact on the development benefits of shale gas in China,when the fiscal and taxation policies,pricing mechanisms and market scale are stable,the impact of oil price fluctuations on shale gas development benefits will be more prominent,shale gas development Enterprises should pay attention to oil price fluctuations.The findings help to understand oil price risks and assist in shale gas development investment decisions.更多还原