【摘要】 文中针对给定的地震和场地特征,利用地震模型获得一系列符合场地条件的地震波输入,使用永久位移指标作为判断失稳条件,通过Monte-Carlo模拟计算边坡的破坏可能性,对边坡在地震作用下的稳定性进行了评价。通过典型算例验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明,不同震级及震中距的地震对边坡稳定性的影响差别明显,地震震级相同时,边坡的失效概率皆随震中距的增大而迅速减小;同时对于相同的震中距,边坡的失稳概率随震级的增大而增大。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, according to the given earthquake and site characteristics, a series of seismic wave input which meets site conditions are obtained by using seismic model.The permanent-displacement index is used as the criterion for determining the instability. The damage possibility of slope is calculated by Monte-Carlo simulation,and the stability of slope under earthquake is evaluated. A typical example was adopted in this study to verify the validity of method. The results show that the influence of earthquakes with various magnitudes and epicenter distances on the stability of slope is significantly different. For the earthquakes with same magnitude, the failure probability of the slope decreases rapidly with the increase of the epicenter distance. And for the earthquakes with same epicenter distance, the failure probability of the slope increase steadily with the increase of magnitude.更多还原