【摘要】 利用焦作市气象站1980年～2014年降水资料,在年最大值法选样的基础上,利用P-Ⅲ型分布、指数分布和耿贝尔分布对暴雨强度进行理论频率拟合分析,得到了降水强度-重现期-历时的关系曲线;采用最小二乘法求解参数,计算暴雨强度公式,并以绝对误差和相对误差作为公式主要评价指标。结果表明:P-Ⅲ型分布曲线拟合理论频率得到的暴雨强度公式效果最好,新版公式暴雨强度较旧版公式偏小。通过分析暴雨时空分布特征,划定了新版暴雨强度公式的适用范围。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the precipitation data from 1980 to 2014 of Jiaozuo Meteorological Station, and based on the sampling of the annual maximum value method, the P-Ⅲ type distribution, the exponential distribution and Gumbell distribution are chosen to carry out the theoretical frequency fitting analysis of the rainstorm intensity to obtain the relation curve of precipitation intensity-recurrence interval-duration. The least square method is used to solve the parameters and to calculate the rainstorm intensity formulas. And the absolute error and relative error are used as the main evaluation indexes. The results show that the effect of rainstorm intensity formula obtained by P-Ⅲ type distribution curve fitting theoretical frequency is the best. The rainstorm intensity calculated by new formula is smaller than by the old formula. By analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm, the application range of the new rainstorm intensity formula is delimited.更多还原