【摘要】 区域经济发展是高等教育演进的重要物质基础与社会资源,高等教育则是区域经济发展的内生动力与智力支持。通过使用1990—2016年海南省高等教育与经济发展的相关时间序列数据,依据协整理论建构专科、本科、研究生规模与区域GDP的向量误差修正模型,实证结果显示:海南省高等教育层次结构与区域GDP之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系(协整关系),VEC模型具有负值调整系数,实现反向修正机制;本科规模与GDP之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,专科、研究生规模与GDP之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系;从短期动态分析,各层次规模对于区域经济发展均为正向影响,贡献度随着滞后期数增加持续上升。因此,为促进高等教育在海南自由贸易区(港)、国际旅游岛建设中发挥积极作用,海南省应加快发展高职(专科)教育,重点发展本科教育,分类发展研究生教育。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the time series data of higher education and economic development in Hainan Province from 1990 to 2016, a VEC model for the scale of college, undergraduate and postgraduate students and regional GDP is constructed according to cointegration theory. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship(cointegration) between the higher education level structure and regional GDP in Hainan Province, and the VEC model has a negative adjustment coefficient to achieve a reverse correction mechanism.The results also show that there is a two-way Granger causality between the undergraduate scale and GDP and a one-way Granger causality between GDP and college and graduate scale. From the short-term dynamic analysis,the scale of each level has a positive impact on regional economic development, with the contribution increasing in the later lag period. Therefore, it is suggested to speed up the development of higher vocational(college)education, focus on the development of undergraduate education, and classify development of postgraduate education.更多还原