【摘要】 在我国乃至全球水资源日益严峻的形势下,评估区域水资源承载力,提出区域空间均衡、协调发展战略具有重大研究意义.本文基于地理信息数据、社会经济统计数据、遥感影像等多种数据,利用状态空间法和层次分析法相结合的手段,综合考虑生态环境、经济社会、水资源3大复合系统相互作用关系,构建了水资源承载力综合评价指标体系,并以河南省巩义市为例,对该市2001—2010年的水资源承载力进行综合评价,分析了影响区域水资源承载力的关键要素.结果表明:巩义市区域综合承载力整体呈现上升的趋势,但仍有很大的发展空间;水资源开发利用率较低和污水排放逐年增加是限制区域综合承载力的主要因素;巩义市在经济结构转型的同时加强环境保护,这将有利于区域经济社会的可持续发展.更多还原

【Abstract】 Due to water shortage it is of great significance to evaluate water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)in different regions and to put forward balanced and coordinated regional development strategy.Geographic data,socio-economic statistical data,remote sensing imagery and other data were used to construct a WRCC evaluation index system taking into consideration of 3 dimensions of ecosystem,socio-economic and water resources system WRCC in Gongyi City of China was evaluated from 2001-2010 with state space method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP).WRCC in Gongyi City showed an upward trend,indicating development potential for socio-economic system.However,low utilization rate of water resources and annual increase in sewage discharge were the main factors limiting regional WRCC.Environmental protection still needs to be strengthened while transforming economic structure,which will be beneficial to sustainable development of regional social economy.更多还原