【摘要】 为给山区高速公路桥梁工程建设提供科学合理的安全评估方法,以事故树为架构,重点分析各基本事件的失效概率和顶事件的发生概率.首先,以桥梁工程高处坠落事故为研究对象,分析该事故发生的影响因素,大致分为可防护型事故和不可防护型事故,构建事故树模型.其次,将基本事件的失效分为客观因素导致的失效和人为因素导致的失效,借鉴材料的疲劳寿命曲线,计算得到客观因素的失效概率;采用改进的THERP+HCR模式计算人为因素的失效概率,考虑行业实际情况、人员承受负荷、管理因素对失效概率的影响,计算得到各基本事件的失效概率,进而计算得到顶事件的发生概率.最后,构建桥梁工程安全预警机制,得出案例的可靠性为99.75%,据此提出整改措施,以进一步提升安全管理的能力.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to provide a scientific and reasonable safety evaluation method for highway bridge construction in mountainous areas,the fault tree is built and the failure probability of basic events and the occurrence probability of top event are analyzed.Firstly,the falling accident of bridge project is studied and the fault tree model is built based on the consideration of influence factors,which can be divided into predictable fault and unpredictable fault.Then,the failure reasons of basic events are divided into objective factors and human factors,the failure probability of objective factors is calculated reference to material fatigue life curve and the failure probability of human factors is calculated by the improvement THERP+HCR model with the consideration of practical experience,personnel endurance power and management factors.The occurrence probability of top event is obtained based on the failure probability of basic event.Finally,the safety warning system of bridge engineering is constructed and the results show that the reliability of the case is 99.75%.Some corrective actions are put forward to further improve the ability of safety management.更多还原