【摘要】 通过对1644—1911年中国东部沿海旱涝文献资料的整理,建立旱涝等级序列,结合频次分析、滑动平均、费希尔聚类分析、小波分析等方法,对旱涝时间分布特征进行了分析。研究发现:清代中国东部沿海旱涝等级变化趋势平稳,呈先上升再减少后增加再下降的趋势;1644—1911年间旱涝灾害大致经历了5个阶段:第一阶段1644—1726年,第二阶段1728—1762年,第三阶段,1763—1818年,第四阶段1819—1864年,第五阶段1865—1911年;在1686年和1875年前后发生突变,其中信噪比SNR分别为1.02和1.13;重建的旱涝等级序列存在多个周期变化特征,较明显的周期变化尺度是110～130a、45～55a、28～30a、9～14a,重建的旱涝等级序列的第1主周期为28a;全区显著性周期有4个,分别是2a、3～4a、6～7a、28a,其中28a为第1主周期。更多还原

【Abstract】 Collecting and collating 1644—1911 documentation of the drought and flood literature on the eastern coast of China,drought and flood index series are established,and frequency and dry time distribution characteristics are analyzed by combining frequency analysis,sliding average,Fisher cluster analysis,and wavelet analysis.The study finds that the drought and flood index of the eastern coast of China during the Qing Dynasty is relatively stable,showing a trend of first increasing significantly,then decreasing slightly,and then increasing steadily.The drought and flood disasters in 1644—1911 generally go through five stages:the first stage:1644—1726;the second stage:1728—1762;the third stage:1763—1818;the fourth stage:1819—1864;Five stages:1865—1911.Mutations occurr around 1686 and 1875,with SNRs of 1.02 and 1.13,respectively.The reconstructed drought-flood grading sequence has periodic variation characteristics at multiple scales,among which the more obvious cyclic variation scales are 110～130 a,45～55 a,28～30 a,9～14 a,and the first major cycle of the reconstructed temperature level sequence.It is 28 a.There are 4 significant periods in the whole area,namely 2 a,3～4 a,6～7 a,and 28 a,of which 28 a is the first major period.更多还原