【摘要】 在文献回顾的基础上构建城镇化进程中产业、空间与人口的交互发展对能源消费的融合传导机制,并基于向量形式的Kaya拓展模型与"多项连乘和加总"的LMDI改进形式,对中国1998—2015年间的能耗总量变化进行因素分解。研究显示:城镇化对生产端能耗的拉动效应远大于生活端;传统能源驱动型产业的转型升级与技术进步缓解了能源压力;近些年除消费支出以外的其他经济单元,因粗放型"三高"发展模式的改善,较居民消费具有能耗比较优势;居民消费效应仍是间接能耗提升的主导因素,城乡居民消费行为趋同对生活能耗波动的正向贡献日趋增强,并随着人口规模的扩张成为能源可持续发展的掣肘;摊大饼式空间低密度蔓延加剧了能源消费,仅人口集聚的规模效应对生活能耗波动具有负向贡献。进一步指出在新型城镇化能源约束强化的情境下,虽然产业层面的结构调整与技术进步对能耗的削减效应仍存在,但更应关注人口层面的居民消费方式及用能习惯的改良,释放空间层面的资源配置对降低能耗的新动能,努力实现共享经济以缓解能耗压力,并据此提出几点建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of a literature review, we constructed the fusion mechanism of energy consumption in urbanization on the interactive development of industry, space and population, and analyzed factor decomposition of changes in energy consumption from 1998 to 2015 in China,based on the Kaya expansion model of vector form and the Aggregate the Sum of Polynomial Multiplication of LMDI. We found that the pulling effect of urbanization on production energy consumption is much greater than that of households. The transformation and upgrading traditional energy-driven industries and technological progress alleviate the energy pressure. In recent years,apart from household expenditure, other economic units, because of the improvement of extensive"three-high"development model rather than household consumption, are more energy-conserving.The household consumption effect is still the dominant factor in the promotion of indirect energy consumption, the positive contribution of convergence between urban and rural household consumption behavior to the fluctuation of energy consumption strengthens gradually, and, with the expansion of population, has become a constraint of the sustainable development of energy. The spread of low density sprawling space exacerbates energy consumption, except for the negative contribution to the fluctuation of energy consumption by the scale effect of population agglomeration. Under the situation of strengthening of energy restraint of new urbanization,although the structural adjustment and technological progress at the industrial level still have the effect of reduction of energy consumption, more attention should be paid to improvements on the patterns and habits of energy consumption at the population level, and releasing the new kinetic energy of reducing energy consumption by space distribution of resource, and also strive to achieve sharing economy to ease the energy consumption pressure, and accordingly.更多还原