【摘要】 目的探讨西宁市2012-2016年气象因素与流感样病例(influenza-like illness,ILI)的关系。方法收集2012-2016年西宁市ILI监测数据和同期的主要气象因素(气温、相对湿度、气压、风速等),用相关分析和分布滞后非线性模型分析气象因素与ILI发病数的关系。结果西宁市2012-2016年共报告ILI病例19 951例,发病高峰集中在每年的11月份至次年4月份。5年间日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、温差中位数分为7.8℃、16.2℃、1.1℃、15.7℃,日平均相对湿度、平均风速、平均气压中位数分别为58.0%、1.0m/s、770.4hPa。相关分析结果显示,温差、平均气压与日ILI例数之间呈正相关(r=0.126、0.061,P<0.05),气温(日平均、日最低、日最高气温)、日平均相对湿度与日ILI例数呈负相关(r=-0.189、-0.212、-0.165、-0.181,均P<0.01)。分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)拟合结果显示各气象变量与日ILI发病例数都呈非线性关系,低温和高温的滞后期可达30d,温差较大时ILI发病的风险增加,相对湿度增加,滞后天数延长时,ILI发病的风险呈降低趋势,气压的变化对ILI发病的影响不明显。结论气象因素是影响西宁市ILI发病的重要因素,可以考虑纳入流感预警预测体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To study the relationship between meteorological factors and the influenza-like illness(ILI)in Xining city during 2012 and 2016 in China. Methods Based on the data of daily reported ILI and the main meteorological data(temperature,relative humidity,atmospheric pressure and wind velocity)in Xining city from 2012 to 2016,the relationship between the meteorological factors and ILI was analyzed using correlation analysis and distributed lag non-linear time series model(DLNM). Results There were a total of 19 951 ILI cases reported during 2012 and 2016 in Xining city of Qinghai province in China with the peak from November to the following April of the next year.The medians of daily average mean,maximum,minimum temperature and range of temperature were 7.8℃,16.2℃,1.1℃and 15.7℃,respectively.The medians of average relative humidity,wind speed and atmospheric pressure were 58.0%,1.0 m/s and 770.4 hPa.Correlation analysis showed that temperature difference and atmospheric pressure were positively associated with the incidence of daily ILI(r=0.126,0.061,P<0.05),whereas temperature(daily average maximum,mean and minimum)and relative humidity were inversely associated(r=-0.189,-0.212,-0.165,-0.181,respectively,P<0.01).The results of DLNM showed a non-linear association between meteorological factors and ILI.The lag phases of daily maximum and minimum temperature were 30 days,temperature difference was positively related with ILI.With the relative humidity increased and lag phase prolonged,the risk of ILI decreased.There was no obviously correlation with atmospheric pressure and ILI. Conclusions Meteorological factors might be important for the incidence of ILI in Xining city.更多还原