【摘要】 2014和2016年,中国连续对生育政策进行了调整,分别实施"单独两孩"和"全面两孩"政策。生育政策调整的效果引起了学术界的关注,相关研究结论大致可以分为"遇冷"、"符合预期"和"难以判定"三类。导致这种差异的主要原因之一是不同研究者使用了不同的判断标准,其中有些标准是不严谨和不科学的。文章分别对近期和中长期生育政策调整效果进行了评估。结果发现,从近期看,生育政策调整"遇冷"的结论是不成立的,政策调整无论是对二孩出生数量的增加,还是对二孩生育水平的提高都产生了明显效果。但从中长期看,政策调整的效果十分有限,不能适应中国人口长期发展需要。目前和今后一段时间,中国年出生人口数量受趋势性因素和阶段性因素的共同作用,前者导致出生数减少,后者推动出生数增加。随着时间的推移,阶段性因素不断消减,趋势性因素将逐渐成为决定人口出生形势的决定性因素,中长期年出生人口数量可能会迅速减少。要实现人口长期发展目标,应加快完善生育政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The one-child policy implemented in China over the past 30 years was amended in 2014 and 2016 progressively,with the successive enactments of partial two-child policy and universal two-child policy. The effect of fertility policy adjustment has been debated heatedly in academia. Current findings are mixed as researchers employed different evaluation criteria, and even worse, some of the criteria are less rigorous and unscientific. This paper evaluates the mid-and long-term effects of childbearing policy adjustments. The results indicate that the effect of childbearing policy in shortrun is positive. Specifically, in the first several years since its promulgation, the policy adjustment contributes to increasing second childbirth rate and also overall fertility level. However, the effect is limited in the mid-and long-run, and it cannot meet the sustainable development of population in China. In the near future, the long-term decline and short-term increase affect the annual number of birth collectively. While the former leads to a decrease of second-child birth rate,the latter spurs some increase of the newly-born children. As time passes by, the latter factor becomes weaker, and the former will gradually become the decisive factor in determining the landscape of new-born population. At that time, the number of yearly new-born population might reduce swiftly. It is indispensable to improve the childbearing policy in order to achieve the long-term goal of population development.更多还原