【摘要】 降雨作用下山区小流域突发地质灾害动态风险评价与应急预警是值得探讨的研究课题。选择浙中丘陵山区衢江区铜山源典型小流域为研究区,基于风险评价理论和模糊数学方法,构建降雨作用下山区小流域突发地质灾害动态风险预警模型,以典型代表性降雨事件为实例,以动态风险水平为预警判据,开展研究区地质灾害动态风险评价,指导区域地质灾害应急防灾。实例验证表明:在"2011·6·19"代表性降雨事件下,研究区地质灾害动态风险水平划分为极低、低和中3级区,对应于应急预警Ⅴ级、Ⅳ级和Ⅲ级区,以此有效指导分区地质灾害应急处置和防灾;而且经实际地质灾害发生情况检验与验证,本次新发生点位于地质灾害动态风险中级(应急预警Ⅲ级)区,可见动态风险水平分区评价是合理可靠的;通过降雨作用下山区小流域突发地质灾害动态风险评价可以有效指导区内地质灾害应急预警和防灾处置,具有积极的指导和实践意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Dynamic risk assessment and emergency warning of sudden geological hazards in mountainous small watershed under rainfall are worthy of discussion. Based on the theory of risk assessment and fuzzy mathematics,a dynamic risk early warning model of sudden geological hazards in the small watershed of Tongshanyuan in the hilly and mountainous area of central Zhejiang Province was established. Taking typical typical rainfall events as an example,the dynamic risk level as the early warning criterion,the study area was developed. The dynamic risk assessment of geological disasters will guide the regional geological disaster emergency response. The case study shows that the dynamic risk level of geological hazards in the study area can be divided into very low,low and medium levels under the representative rainfall event of June 19,2011,corresponding to the emergency early warning V,IV and III levels,so as to effectively guide the emergency disposal and prevention of geological hazards in the region; and the actual geological hazards have been checked. The test and verification show that the new occurrence point is located in the middle-level( emergency early warning III) area of the dynamic risk of geological hazards,which shows that the zoning evaluation of dynamic risk level is reasonable and reliable. It has positive guiding and practical significance.更多还原