【摘要】 目的研究多重耐药鲍曼不动杆菌(MDR-AB)医院感染发展趋势,为有效防控提供理论依据。方法采用时间序列分析方法,对江苏省某综合医院患者送检标本MDR-AB的检出结果进行分析,建立预测模型和防控措施。结果 MDR-AB月检出率的ARIMA预测模型为▽12xt=μ+0.762 2εt-1+εt;模型预测2016年MDR-AB月检出率的平均相对误差为15.32%,预测值与实际值总体趋势基本一致。结论 MDR-AB检出率存在周期变化和长期增长趋势,适用于ARIMA模型进行预测,可为临床早期采取防控措施提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To study the epidemic trends of multiple drug resistance-Acinetobacter baumannii,and to provide a scientific basis for reducing the MDR-AB infection. Methods Time series analysis was conducted by using the monthly incidence data of MDR-AB patients in a hospital of Jiangsu province,and a predictive model was established after parameter estimation and model evaluation. Results The MDR-AB detection rate for ARIMA model was ▽ 12 xt= μ + 0. 762 2εt-1 +εt,and the average of the relative error between actual and predicted values was 15. 32%. But the trend of model prediction and the actual was basically same. Conclusion The ARIMA model can well fit and predict the detection rate of MDR-AB which has periodic change and long-term growth trend,which can provide a reference for early clinical prevention and control measures.更多还原