【摘要】 以速度标准判定人口城镇化和土地城镇化的协调关系缺乏充分的理论依据,而城镇化进程中人口要素和土地要素的投入具有明显的阶段性,因此从城镇化阶段对比的角度考察二者关系是一个可行的视角。在总结城镇化阶段理论的基础上,根据人口城镇化、土地城镇化的自身规律,从"阶段协调"的角度考察不同饱和值情景下人口城镇化与土地城镇化的协调关系变化。结果表明:(1)我国人口城镇化和土地城镇化均符合Logistic曲线过程,但二者拐点存在明显差异,应该分阶段分析二者协调关系;(2)按"阶段协调"的标准判断,在城镇化"起步—加速—减速"阶段,二者关系分别为起步阶段土地城镇化明显滞后于人口城镇化,加速阶段土地城镇化靠近人口城镇化,减速阶段土地城镇化将超前于人口城镇化;(3)在城市人口发展和土地管控的4种情景中,代表"人口低度集聚、土地宽松管控"的情景2是促使人口城镇化、土地城镇化实现在减速阶段协调的最优方案。以上研究结果表明:新型城镇化推进过程中应充分考虑城镇化发展阶段,树立促进人口城镇化与土地城镇化"阶段协调"的调控理念;应在一定程度上肯定近年来城市土地快速扩张的积极意义,即它是对人口城镇化的阶段性追赶,但减速阶段则需要对土地城镇化进行适度管控,避免其过度追赶人口城镇化而导致二者关系出现新的不协调;应合理把握政策管控的松紧度,选择适宜的人口城镇化峰值(80%左右)和人均城镇用地标准(115 m2以上),以促进二者在减速阶段末期的协调发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 There is a lack of sufficient theoretical basis to judge the coordination relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization with speed as the standard.In the process of urbanization,the input of population and land elements have obvious stage,so it is a feasible way to study their relationship from the perspective of contrasting urbanization stage.On the basis of summarizing the theory of urbanization stages,according to the development laws of population urbanization and land urbanization,this paper tries to observe the coordination their relationship from the perspective of‘stage coordination’under different saturation scenarios.The results show that:(1) The population urbanization and land urbanization are in line with the Logistic curve,but there are obvious differences between the two inflection points,indicating that their coordination relationship should be analyzed in stages.(2) According to the standard of ‘stage coordination’,in the stage of urbanization‘starting-acceleration-deceleration’,their relationship is as follow: Land urbanization lags behind population urbanization in the starting stage,land urbanization closes to population urbanization in the acceleration stage,and land urbanization will lead to population urbanization in the deceleration stage.(3) In the 4 scenarios of urban population development and land management,scenarios 2 represents the ‘low population concentration,intensified land control’,which is the best program to achieve coordination development between population urbanization and land urbanization in deceleration stage.The results indicate that: We should take the full consideration to the urbanization development stages in the process of new-type urbanization,and set up the thinking of promoting the stage coordination between population urbanization and land urbanization.In a certain extent,we should affirm the positive significance of the urban land rapid expansion in recent years,which is to catch up population urbanization,while in the deceleration stage,we need control land urbanization moderately to avoid catching up with the population urbanization and creating the new incoordination.In order to promote the coordinated development between population urbanization and land urbanization at the end of the deceleration stage,we should grasp the tightness of policy control,select the appropriate saturation values of population urbanization(about 80%) and the standards of per capita urban land(more than 115 m~2).更多还原