【摘要】 近年来,新能源汽车井喷式的发展对关键原材料形成了强劲的需求,使原材料面临更加严重的供应风险。本文界定了钴、镍、锂、稀土等23种新能源汽车关键原材料,从地质性、技术性及经济性因素,社会发展水平和监管政策因素以及地缘政治因素3个影响因素出发,设计了5项二级指标,对新能源汽车关键原材料的全球供应风险进行定量评估,并进一步分析了城市矿产循环利用对新能源汽车关键原材料供应风险的调节效应。结果显示:不考虑城市矿产循环利用的情景下,新能源汽车23种关键原材料中,锡的风险最高,铬、锗、钴的风险依次降低,锂的风险最低;在考虑城市矿产循环利用的情景下,这些关键原材料的全球供应风险有不同程度的下降,中高风险原材料种类减少,中低风险原材料种类增加。鉴于新能源汽车快速发展对其关键原材料的强劲需求,应尽快实施关键原材料的分类管理,加强城市矿产的开发利用,以提升新能源汽车关键原材料的保障能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,new energy vehicle industry is experiencing phenomenal growth,which generates strong demand for critical minerals. Meanwhile,the supply risk of critical minerals is getting more and more serious. In this paper,we defined 23 critical minerals for new energy vehicles,including cobalt,nickel,lithium,rare earth elements. Then,a quantitative evaluation model which is comprised of three dimensions: geological,technological and economic dimension,social and regulatory dimension,and geopolitical dimension,was established to evaluate global supply risk of those critical minerals. This study further analyzed how risk would change un-der the consideration of resources recycling. The results indicate that,tin has the highest supply risk,followed by chromium,germanium and cobalt,while lithium enjoys the lowest supply risk. And their supply risk declines to some different content under the scenario of recycling. Particularly,if the minerals are recycled infinitely,the risk of Cr and Sn would fall into middle from middle-high,Co,Fe,Zn,Mn,Ag,Au,Ni,Al would fall into low-middle from middle,and Cu would fall into low from middle. On the basis of the results,we proposes to build classification management system of critical minerals and develop urban minerals to satisfy the resources demand of new energy vehicle industry.更多还原