【摘要】 本文给出了考虑预防和保护的项目风险应对预算分配方法。首先,对风险应对策略的效果与策略本身、风险特性以及所投入预算之间的关系进行分析并给出相应的函数表达式;在此基础上,构建以最小化风险应对预算为目标、以风险控制要求为约束的风险应对预算分配优化模型,通过模型求解,可得到最优的风险应对预算分配决策。研究表明,当项目经理对风险控制要求较高时,需要同时投入较高的预防预算和保护预算;当初始风险概率增加时,需要同时增加风险预防和风险保护的预算投入,且所增加的预防预算大于保护预算,反之亦然;存在仅进行风险预防或风险保护的情形;在同时进行风险预防和风险保护时,更注重预防还是保护与策略的有效性有关。更多还原

【Abstract】 A method of allocating budget for project risk response considering prevention and protection is proposed. First, the relationships between the strategies, risk characteristics, the invested budgets and the corresponding response effects are analyzed, and then function expressions are formulated to describe the relationships. Afterwards, an optimization model with the objective of minimizing the total risk response budget and the constraint of the risk response requirement is built. By solving the model, the optimal risk preventive budget and risk protective budget can be obtained. The research results show that:(1)more budget should be invested in risk prevention and risk protection under a high requirement for risk response,(2)when the initial risk probability(loss) becomes higher, more budget should be invested in risk prevention and protection simultaneously, and the increased budget for risk prevention(protection) is higher than that for risk protection(prevention),(3)there exist the cases that only the risk preventive strategy or the risk protective strategy is implemented,(4)whether should pay more attention on risk prevention or on risk protection is depended on their effectiveness.更多还原