【摘要】 大规模人口疏散是在台风灾害准备阶段的重要应急手段,能够减少人员伤亡并保护财产安全。为帮助政府提高台风灾害的应急管理水平,本文运用演化博弈理论和方法构建了被疏散群体撤离决策模型,分别对在自愿撤离和政府参与条件下撤离策略选择进行稳定性分析,得到各因素对撤离决策的影响。结果表明:在自愿撤离的条件下,被疏散群体会依据撤离行动能够挽救的生命和物质财产收益与疏散过程消耗的成本间的关系做出决策;政府采取降低疏散成本和保护其固定资产等方面政策和措施对被疏散群体选择撤离策略有显著的促进作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Large-scale evacuation is an important expedient in the stage of typhoon disaster preparedness,which could reduce casualties and protect property. In order to improve the emergency management level of typhoon disaster,an evacuation decision-making model is presented by using the evolutionary game theory and methodology. The stability of evacuation strategy choices are analyzed from the perspective of voluntary evacuation with disaster warning and mandatory evacuation with government intervention. The results show that: under voluntary evacuation condition,the evacuees make evacuation decisions based on the relations between the people’s lives and property that evacuation operation could save and the cost of evacuation. The appropriate actions and policies of government for reducing the evacuation cost and protecting fixed assets have significant and positive effects on the choices of participating evacuation.更多还原