【摘要】 基于2000-2014年联合国服务贸易数据库相关数据和扩展的引力模型,利用Heckman选择模型处理零贸易流导致的内生性问题,对CEPA下服务贸易自由化效应进行评估。结果表明,整体上CEPA的实施在一定程度上促进了内地、香港和澳门服务贸易出口,但与其他区域贸易安排相比,还存在较大差距。CEPA机制没有较好地突出港澳服务产业结构特点、发展规划及契合内地制造业对生产性服务业需要,可能是造成差距的主要原因。因此,应从内地、香港和澳门服务业竞争力现状、需求和发展规划出发,对CEPA负面清单管理模式进行完善,进一步促进三地服务贸易自由化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of UN service trade database from 2000 to 2014,this paper analyzes the economic effect of Service Trade Liberalization of CEPA through a gravitational model,and use Heckman selection model to deal with endogenous problems caused by zero trade flows. The results show that CEPA promote the export of trade in the mainland,Hongkong and Macao to a certain extent, but there is still a big gap between the other regional trade arrangements. Because of the characteristics of service and service industry,service trade is more uncertain than goods trade,and faces higher transaction costs,and more dependence on the system. The design of the mechanism of CEPA did not prominent the advantages and characteristics of the service industry structure in Hongkong and Macao,and meeting the needs of the mainland manufacturing industry for producer services may be the main reason. This article suggest that from the status,demand and future development planning of service industry of mainland,Hongkong and Macao,to improve the CEPA negative list management model,in order to promote the liberalization of services trade in the three areas.更多还原