【摘要】 人口迁移流动是人口学研究的重点和难点之一,利用人口年龄结构数据中死亡率相对稳定的特点和线性回归方法,可以对历史时期内特定区域中人口的迁移流动做出较为精确的估计,使用甘肃省1990年以来普查数据和历年统计公报人口数据,在建立多维自适应计算模型的基础上,对甘肃省1978年以来总人口中跨省迁移人口的规模做了尝试性分析,指出如果使用普查年数据对跨省迁移人口的规模做简单线性回归,可能会带来较大误差。更多还原

【Abstract】 The estimation of population migration scale is one of the most important and difficult points in demography,Using the relatively stable Characteristics of population mortality in population age structure data and linear regression,We can make a more accurate estimate of the population migration scale in a certain period of history,Based on the census data of Gansu province since 1990 and the statistical data of population,Based on the establishment of multidimensional selfadaption computational model,By estimation and analysis the scale of migrating population in Gansu province since 1978,Pointed out that may bring greater errors if just estimation the scale of the migrating population by building a simple linear regression using census data.更多还原