【摘要】 目的对2009—2016年成都市城区蝇密度数据进行地统计分析,以估计蝇类在城区的分布格局。方法使用普通克里金法对采样点以外区域做蝇密度空间插值模拟。结果经Arc GIS 9.3软件地统计向导中普通克里金插值,可生成城区蝇密度预测表面,模型精度标准预测误差均值为-0.029;标准均方根预测误差值为0.753;蝇密度监测均值95%置信区间面积占城区蝇密度预测表面积的13.98%。结论使用现有蝇密度数据,运用Arc GIS地统计模块进行估计,各监测位蝇密度监测均值不能代表城区蝇密度水平。该预测结果表明,城区周边区域蝇密度高于中央区域,蝇类防治可因地制宜,分区施策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the fly population densities in the urban areas of Chengdu from 2009 to 2016 with geostatistical methods for estimating spatial distribution. Methods Fly population densities outside sampling sites were modeled by a method of ordinary Kriginginter polation. Results Forecasted surface of fly population densities was built by geostatistical wizard with Arc GIS 9. 3,with the mean of the predicted standard deviation of-0. 029 and the root mean square error of 0. 753. The area for fly population densities within the means of 95% CI accounted for13. 98% of the likelihood surface areas. Conclusion The mean of fly population densities can’t represent the urban areas. The results showed that neighbourhood’s fly population densities was greater than centre area,fly control should be taken according to local conditions.更多还原