【摘要】 目的:利用2002—2015年14年间山东省城镇职工基本医疗保险基金筹资与支付总额时间序列,预测2016—2027年的基本发展态势。方法:利用灰色Verhulst模型建立拟合模型,利用拟合结果和马尔可夫模型构建预测2016—2027年相对残差状态,用预测的相对残差状态来修正灰色Verhulst模型预测的结果,从而提高预测的精度。结果:利用2002年到2015年我国国内生产总值指数调整后的基金筹资与支出时间序列,拟合相对误差分别为2.79%和2.41%,拟合效果较好。通过马尔可夫模型修正后的基金筹资和支出相对误差分别减少为0.77%和0.73%,预测精度大幅提高。预测2025年山东省城镇职工基本医疗保险基金筹资和支出为748.73亿元和827.34亿元。结论:如果山东省城镇职工基本医疗保险保持现有的筹资支付政策不变,在2020年左右出现年度超支风险,加上历史年度累计结余,超支风险会后延到2025年以后。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:From 1995 to 2015,the time series of funds and payments of basic medical insurance fund for urban employees in China was predicted from 2016 to 2025,and the basic development trend was compared.Methods:Verhulst model was applied to establish matching model.The result of matching and Markov model were used to construct the prediction on 2016 to 2025 relative residual state and modify the time series prediction results.Results:The fund financing and expenditure time series after the adjustment of gross domestic production from 2002 to 2015 were matched with grey Verhulst model,which were typical gross function model.The relative error of the fitting of these two values were 2.79%and 2.41%.The fitting effect was well.Based on the modified Markov model,the relative errors of fund financing and expenditure released by 0.77% and 0.73%.The prediction accuracy was highly promoted.It predicted the fund financing and expenditure of Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance(UEBMI)were 74.873 billion yuan and 82.734 billion yuan.Conclusion:There would be no overruns during 2016 to 2025 with the cumulative balance over years if the current financing payment policy of UEBMI remained unchanged.更多还原