【摘要】 为估算气候变化和人类活动对湖南资水流域径流量变化的相对影响程度,采用累计距平法以及滑动t检验法对资水流域近55年的降水量、径流量序列进行趋势分析和突变检验;采用累积量斜率变化率比较法和双累积曲线法分别计算降水及人类活动的贡献率。结果表明:资水上游的罗家庙站受人类活动影响较明显;在资水中下游,变异期Ⅰ(1987～2001年),降水对流域径流的影响量大于人类活动的贡献率;在变异期Ⅱ(2002～2014年),人类活动的贡献率大幅增加并逐步成为径流变化的主要驱动因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to estimate the relative impact of climate change and human activities on the change of runoff in the Zishui River Basin in Hunan Province, the cumulative anomaly curve and sliding t-test were used to analyze the trend and runoff test of precipitation and runoff series in the past 55 years. The comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity and the method of double mass curve were used to calculate the contribution rate of precipitation and human activities. The results show that there is an obvious impact of human activities at the Luojiamiao Station in the upper reaches of the Zishui River. In the variation period I(1987-2001), the effect of precipitation on runoff is larger than that of human activities. In the variation period II(2002-2014), the contribution rate of human activities increased significantly and gradually became the main driving factor of runoff change.更多还原