【摘要】 耐药性的研究一直是近些年来的研究热点,2015年11月,中国的科研团队在《柳叶刀.感染性疾病》上刊载了一份研究报告,该团队从中国人和猪体内发现了一种能对终极抗生素多粘菌素产生强耐药性的新基因mcr-1.该基因在屠宰动物、零售肉类、健康人体肠道细菌、临床菌株同时存在,给出了一个完整的动物源性食物链传播途径.本文基于mcr-1的这一传播特性,建立数学模型,给出非流动环境下该耐药基因在食源性动物层面和人群层面传播的系统动力学模型,分析其稳定性,并对模型中的重要参数进行数值模拟分析,借此对mcr-1的传播状态进行理论研究.通过对重要参数的数值模拟,对mcr-1耐药基因的传播情况进行分析,并给出控制该耐药基因传染的关键所在.更多还原

【Abstract】 Antimicrobial resistance is now considered as one of the most serious global threats to human health in the 21 st century. Recently, the discovery of a plasmid-borne colistin resistance gene, mcr-1, in China heralds the emergence of truly pan-drug-resistant bacteria. The gene has been found primarily in Escherichia coli but has also been identified in other members of the Enterobacteriaceae in animal, food, human, and environmental samples on every continent. Until now, the articles published have appeared to fairly use and interpret experimental studies. The aim of our work is to develop mathematic models that quantitatively describe the dynamic of the population of domestic animals and humans. We propose two ordinary differential equation models for the transmission dynamic of mcr-1 gene. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analyses are carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulations of the proposed model, which supports the theoretical findings, are also performed. Our results show that the fraction of animals used for human consumption is the most effective parameters of controlling the spread of mcr-1 gene in comparison with other parameters.更多还原