【摘要】 辽河流域径流量在近年来呈现明显减小趋势,这严重影响到流域内部的生态环境和可持续发展。为了查明径流量变化特征及不同影响因素对径流量变化的相对影响程度,本文基于流域内相关水文站在1956—2015年的实测水文数据以及流域内部和周边的38个气象站的同期观测数据,计算了流域不同区间平均年径流量、降水量和蒸发量。利用累积距平分析方法得出了径流量突变年份,据此划分出了径流量变化的不同阶段。利用累积量斜率变化率研究方法估算了降水量、蒸发量和人类活动对不同区间径流量变化的相对贡献率。结果表明:辽河流域不同区间径流量的变化主要受到人类活动的影响,其贡献率总体上超过了80%,而降水量和蒸发量的综合贡献率基本小于20%。为了辽河流域水资源的可持续利用和改善生态环境,需要制定相应措施以减小人类活动对径流量变化的干预程度。更多还原

【Abstract】 The runoff of the Liaohe River Basin shows the significant decreasing trend in recent years,which seriously affects the ecological environment and sustainable development within the basin.In order to find out the variation characteristics of runoff and the relative influence of different influencing factors on the runoff changes,we calculated the average annual runoff,precipitation and evaporation in different sections of the basin based on the measured hydrological data during 1956—2015 and the observation data of nearly 40 meteorological stations within and around the basin.Then the inflection years in runoff changes for the different reaches of the river basin were obtained by the method of cumulative anomaly.Finally,we calculated the relative contributions of the precipitation,evaporation,and human activities to the runoff changes for different stages divided by the inflection years.The results showed that the runoff changes in the different reaches of the Liaohe River Basin were mainly influenced by human activities whose contributions exceeded 80% while the secondary factors were the precipitation and evaporation whose total contributions were basically less than 20% .In order to maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources and improve the ecological environment,it will need to formulate corresponding measures and accordingly to decrease the intervention of the human activities to the runoff changes of the river basin.更多还原