【摘要】 根据过渡理论,结合均值变点分析,提出了基于过渡理论的的汛期划分与汛期分期的原理与模型,研究了张家庄水库以候与旬为论域的汛期分期变化规律,结果表明分期结果符合洪水季节规律和成因特点,有较强的理论背景,数学概念清楚。且分期论域对分期结果有一定影响,在实际中应细化汛期分期论域,让分期结果更精确,也可对不同的防洪安全标准制定不同的汛期分期论域。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the theory of transition and combining with the average value change-point method,the principles and model of flood season division and staging based on transition theory are proposed.The changing rules of flood staging of Zhangjiazhuang Reservoir under the periods of 5 d and 10 d are studied respectively based on above method.The results show that the flood staging conforms to the regularity and genetic characteristics of flood season.The math concepts and theoretical background of this method are clear.Because the staging domain has effects on the result of flood staging,the staging domain in flood staging research should be refined in order to achieve more accurate staging result,and different flood season staging domains should also be developed for different flood control safety standards.更多还原